Simulation of the impacts of land-use change on surface runoff of Lai Nullah Basin in Islamabad, Pakistan

Publication year: 2011
Source: Landscape and Urban Planning, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 14 June 2011

Muhammad, Ali , Sher Jamal, Khan , Irfan, Aslam , Zahiruddin, Khan

Land use change has significant impact on the hydrologic and ecological processes of a watershed. This study combines an empirical land use change model and an event scale, rainfall-runoff model to quantify the impacts of potential land use change on the storm-runoff generation in the Lai Nullah Basin. The HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model was calibrated and validated for 5 storm events in the study area, and the results showed good consistency between the simulated and measured hydrographs at the outlet (Katarian Bridge) of the basin with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 76 to 98%. The future land use scenario was forecasted based…

 Highlights: ► HEC-HMS model effectively simulates effects of land use change on runoff generation. ► Significant increase in runoff volumes associated with increase in urbanization. ► Expansion rate of built-up area is of utmost importance to avoid future flood risk.