An application of Lotka–Volterra model to Taiwan's transition from 200mm to 300mm silicon wafers

Publication year: 2011
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 14 June 2011

Su-Yun, Chiang

In this paper, we explore the innovation growth of 200mm and 300mm silicon wafers from Taiwan. Using the historic data, we simulate the growth of the area of 200mm and 300mm silicon wafers manufactured in Taiwan by the competitive Lotka–Volterra model. The parameters in the Lotka–Volterra model estimated with the realistic data are obtained numerically. The dynamic growth of competitive relationship between 200mm silicon wafers and 300mm silicon wafers is then analyzed. To prove the performance of the model, we further compare the famous Bass model and the Lotka–Volterra model. We also perform the equilibrium analysis to determine the long-term…

 Research highlights: ► A prey–predator relationship exists between 200mm silicon wafers and 300mm silicon wafers via the Lotka–Volterra model. ► Comparing Bass with Lotka-Volterra model, the latter is more appropriate to describe the competition in the semiconductor market. ► Transition to the 300mm generation apparently has cost and technology advantage. ► Finally, 200mm and 300mm silicon wafers reach an equilibrium state.